The clock reads 3:45 AM, and although my eyes are just starting to get heavy, my mind continues to race about the upcoming referendum. An entire country splitting down the middle - millions of animistic tribal men and women voting to separate themselves from the Islamic north. Along with the majority of others, I believe that 2011 will give birth to the world’s newest country. Whether or not it will happen peacefully remains to be seen...
In this entry, I promised to briefly discuss a few possible outcomes of the referendum. They need not be lengthy, just enough to stir you to pray. It’s my prayer that your eyes will be opened to the fact that this could be the greatest event in the history of Sudan - or it could be the most catastrophic. A country could be born, or a country could be slaughtered.
Option one: the north delays the vote in attempt to denounce it. Most Sudanese think the vote will go ahead as planned, but don’t count this out. I can promise you one thing: this vote is the last thing Sudanese president al-Bashir wants to happen. He’ll do anything in his sneaky power to de-rail it. He’ll make excuses about irregularities, mistakes, etc. It will be up to the international community to pile on the pressure to assure this doesn’t happen.
Option two: The vote is cast, and it is determined that the southern portion of Sudan is not willing to secede from the north. Ralph Nader will be elected President before this happens. Out of all of the Sudanese men I’ve spoken with, all agree that their country wants secession. This option is highly unlikely.
Option three: secession is voted in, and southern Sudan peacefully becomes it’s own country. This is certainly the ideal situation. President al-Bashir (Sudan’s wanted president) says his National Congress Party (NCP) is ready and willing to accept the outcome peacefully. He says “We are committed to accept the results whether the vote leads to unity or secession as long as the referendum is conducted in a free, fair and transparent manner.” While this option is certainly possible, I would venture to say it isn’t the most likely. As discussed in an earlier post, the southern portion of Sudan holds 80% of the country’s oil in its ground. Why would a corrupt president give these resources up so easily? Well, this is where the strategy comes in. Should the south vote to secede, they would be WISE to offer a generous portion of the oil to the north. As valuable as the income from this oil will be to rebuilding southern Sudan, it will be equally valuable in keeping the north happy. In short, if the south votes to secede and agrees to share their resources with the north, I believe in return, they’ll be given peace from the north. For the most part, anyways...
Option four: secession is voted in, and the north retaliates. I save this for last because I want this to really sink in. The south wants religious freedom (read: for the north to stop bullying them with Islam). The north wants to control the south, mainly because of the resources. The south is also a source of women and child sex slaves for the Muslims of northern Sudan. If the south votes to secede, al-Bashir and his “government” could view this as (lots of) money slipping through their fingers. What does a bully do when the weak fights back? He fights harder. For the most part, the Arab-led north has more military resources. Some argue they have the backing of several Egyptian militia groups, and even connections to the middle east terrorist cells we Americans are too familiar with. If they see their monetary sources begin to retreat, they could very well pursue - violently.
When observing this possibility, many officials are preparing for the worst. Aid organizations are already making preparations to be on the ground in southern Sudan to help. Perhaps you’ve seen George Clooney in the news lately trying to raise awareness for the situation. He’s doing so because he believes this catastrophe is, for lack of a better word, coming. His words: "If you knew a tsunami, or Katrina or a Haiti earthquake was coming, what would you do to save people?"
I’ll put it bluntly - this outcome involves outright genocide. Islam is a religion of violence. As if there isn’t enough war in Sudan already, this vote could very well light a match under a gasoline-soaked situation. If truthful reports make it to your television, you’ll hear of thousands being murdered. Military groups from the north will go on rampages - burning villages, killing men, raping women, and taking children into slavery. There are hundreds of thousands of southern Sudanese refugees currently living in the north. Some have made their way home for the vote - but others have stayed. What will happen to them? I shudder to think.
I hope these summaries have opened your eyes a little more to the situation. Please, pray for the referendum vote on January 9, 2011. A situation like this can only have a positive outcome by the grace and mercy of the Creator of the universe.
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